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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-06-03 01:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022357 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal is meandering generally southward near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane and surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center. An automated weather station on a Mexican offshore platform recently measured a sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to 62 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 5
2020-06-02 22:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.5W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.5 West. Cristobal is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-06-02 22:38:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 022038 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-06-02 19:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021749 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Corrected header to reflect Tropical Storm ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward through tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal is forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-06-02 17:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021500 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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