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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-21 10:56:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 210856 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 ...DEPRESSION INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 112.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 112.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern Mexico later this morning, and move into southern Arizona this evening or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the depression will likely degenerate to a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Baja California peninsula, the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, and Arizona and New Mexico in the United States through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches could occur over portions of southern California through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico today, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-21 10:56:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 210856 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAHIA KINO 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-21 10:55:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 210855 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 112.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 112.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-21 04:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 02:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 02:52:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-21 04:43:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 The tropical cyclone has not intensified this evening, with much of the deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak analyses from both SAB and TAFB. Since the center is expected to move over the south-central Baja California peninsula tonight and move back inland later tomorrow while southwesterly shear is forecast to remain strong, no increase in strength is expected. The influence of land should reduce the cyclone to a remnant low pressure area over Arizona by late Monday, and the surface center should lose its identity shortly thereafter. The center is not easy to locate on geostationary satellite imagery, so the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 010/13. A mid-level ridge to the east of the depression along with a cyclonic circulation to the west should induce a north- northeastward motion through Monday. The track guidance is in general agreement on a slight acceleration through tomorrow morning, and is a little to the right of the previous model runs. The official forecast is shifted slightly to the east of the previous one. This is close to the latest model consensus with a little additional weight given to the reliable ECMWF solution. Moisture associated with the depression is spreading northward, and expected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja California peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern California, and Arizona during the next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 26.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.7N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.5N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1200Z 34.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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