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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-18 10:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of NINE was located near 17.6, -45.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 8
2015-09-18 10:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 45.7W ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 45.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is moving through an area of strong upper-level winds, and it is forecast to weaken to a remnant low Friday or Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-09-18 10:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180840 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 45.7W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 45.7W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 46.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.2N 48.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.9N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-18 04:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 02:35:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 02:50:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-18 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180233 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 The depression consists of a circulation of low clouds with a very small patch of deep convection to the north of the center. Based on continuity and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is kept at 25 kt. Given that 20 to 25 kt of shear and dry air are expected to continue in the vicinity of the depression, weakening is forecast, and the depression will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours or so. Satellite fixes show a motion toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 6 kt. The depression has become a shallow cyclone, and the subtropical high is forecast to rebuild to the north. Consequently, the depression or the remnant low is forecast to turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest. This turn to the left is the solution provided by most of the track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 45.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 19.7N 48.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 22.0N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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