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Tropical Depression Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-06 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062032 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has waned. A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak believable winds of around 30 kt. The latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass. In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12 hours. These factors should cause continued weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is slightly to the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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Tropical Depression Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-06 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-06 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Aug 6 the center of Jimena was located near 17.6, -140.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Jimena Public Advisory Number 16
2021-08-06 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Jimena Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 ...JIMENA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 140.0W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Jimena was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 140.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Jimena. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Brown/Hagen
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Tropical Depression Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-06 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 140.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 140.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 140.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON JIMENA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2 ...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/HAGEN
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