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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-03 22:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032036 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Ignacio has been devoid of deep convection within 75 nmi of the center for the more than 6 hours now due to strong easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on the continued degradation in the convective pattern and a 1536Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that revealed a patch of 27-kt surface wind vectors south of the center. The small cyclone is expected to meander over water temperatures near 26 deg C for the next 12-24 hours, while the shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt during that time. Owing to these unfavorable environmental conditions, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by late this afternoon, followed by dissipation on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is now 090/03 kt. Ignacio is forecast to make a small clockwise loop within weak low-level steering flow until the system dissipates around 36 hours. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ignacio (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-03 22:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IGNACIO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Ignacio was located near 20.4, -115.7 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-03 22:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 115.7W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 115.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slow motion toward the southeast is forecast tonight, followed by a southward motion on Wednesday. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate by late Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-03 22:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-03 22:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 032036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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