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Tropical Depression Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-08-05 22:31:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 052030 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-08-05 22:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 131.2W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 131.2W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 132.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 139.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 131.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-05 16:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051434 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 After an earlier brief burst of thunderstorm activity northeast of the center around 0600Z, associated convection since then has been on a rapid decline and warming of the cloud tops which now barely reach -30 deg C near the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers of T2.5 and T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and an objective satellite intensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, making Hilda a tropical depression. Further weakening is expected now that Hilda is located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures and moving into a drier and more stable air mass. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate is 305/11 kt, which is faster and a little to the right of the previous advisory motion. This is likely due to the low- and upper-level circulations having decoupled now, owing to the lack of significant convection. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-northwestward for the next 48 hours by a sprawling subtropical ridge located to the north. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-05 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 5 the center of Hilda was located near 21.0, -130.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Hilda Public Advisory Number 24
2021-08-05 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 051433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 ...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 130.2W ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 130.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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