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Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 17
2021-09-22 22:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 222055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...PETER EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 66.7W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 66.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A similar motion with gradual turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-09-22 22:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222055 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 66.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 66.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 66.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 66.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.4N 66.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 65.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 66.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-22 22:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222054 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 The tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring over the last several days has gradually become better organized. The satellite structure in particular is quite impressive for a tropical depression, with both the 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at T2.5/35 kt. This bigger question, however, was if the system possessed a well-defined closed earth-relative circulation. An ASCAT-C pass from earlier this morning hinted that the circulation was becoming better defined, with the development of westerly low-level winds to the south of the convective shield. This westerly low-level flow is also confirmed by atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) available from the GOES-16 meso domain over the system. While the low-level circulation may still be somewhat broad, it now appears to be well-defined enough to mark the formation of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30-kt, in agreement with peak wind retrievals of 28-30 kt by the earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be at 270/13 kt, though this is somewhat uncertain given that the center has only recently formed. An expansive mid-level ridge is located to the north and west of the cyclone, which should maintain its heading toward the west, though with a gradual gain in latitude as the system approaches the western extent of the ridge by day 5. The track guidance is in excellent agreement on this track evolution for the first three days, with just a bit more spread in the guidance thereafter. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean towards the end of the forecast is on the left side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS and HWRF models are currently on the right side. For the first NHC track forecast, I have elected to stay close to the track consensus aids, taking a blend of the HCCA and TCVN aids which are near the middle of the guidance envelope. The environment ahead of the tropical depression appears quite favorable for intensification. Vertical wind shear is forecast by both the ECWMF- and GFS-based SHIPS guidance to stay at or under 10 kt for the next 3-5 days as the storm traverses warm 28-29 C sea surface temperatures. Most of the guidance responds to this environment by indicating strengthening, and the NHC intensity guidance follows suit, showing a steady increase in intensity throughout the forecast period. While it might take a bit of time for the formative low-level circulation to become vertically aligned with the mid-level center, once that occurs, it is possible a period of rapid intensification could occur during the five day forecast. The forecast intensity by 120 hours (100 kt) is on the higher end of the guidance envelope, but not as high as the latest HWRF or HAFS-B forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.1N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 10.5N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 11.0N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 11.7N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 12.4N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 14.2N 49.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 52.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics
2021-09-22 22:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:53:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 21:34:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-22 22:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 222051 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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