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Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-22 04:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 721 WTNT31 KNHC 220243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH STRONG SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 65.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by late tomorrow, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Nearby NOAA buoy observations indicate the estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-09-22 04:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 723 FONT11 KNHC 220243 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-09-22 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220242 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.6N 66.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Depression Rose Graphics
2021-09-22 04:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 02:39:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 02:39:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-22 04:38:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 942 WTNT42 KNHC 220238 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Rose this evening with the remaining deep convection becoming further separated from the low-level center. Unfortunately Rose fell within the gaps of the ASCAT satellite instruments this evening, so there has been no recent scatterometer data. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have continued to decline, and these subjective estimates support lowering Rose's initial intensity to 30 kt. The environment ahead of the cyclone is expected to remain quite hostile with moderate westerly to northwesterly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Rose will continue to produce bursts of convection over the eastern portion of its circulation during the next few days which could allow it remain a tropical cyclone during that time. Alternatively, the shear and dry air could cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low much sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little overall change in strength during the next couple of days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low by day 3. Rose continues to decelerate, now moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The depression should remain on a slow northwestward heading around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward, and then recurve northeastward ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The dynamical guidance envelope remained fairly steady this cycle and no significant change was made to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 22.9N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 23.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 25.0N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 26.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 28.9N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 29.7N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 31.3N 32.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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