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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-03 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 3 the center of Victor was located near 16.1, -39.9 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 16
2021-10-03 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 540 WTNT35 KNHC 030843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...VICTOR REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 39.9W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 39.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur today. However, gradual weakening is forecast to begin by tonight and continue for the next few days, with Victor becoming a remnant low during that time. The system is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-10-03 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 030843 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-10-03 10:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030840 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 39.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 39.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.3N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.8N 47.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.3N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 39.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-10-03 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030246 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor remains a tropical cyclone this evening, with pulsing deep convection occuring primarily north of the well-defined low-level center. However, this convection lacks much organization and is continually being stripped away by around 20 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier this evening, there was an ASCAT-A pass valid at 2238 UTC which had peak wind retrievals of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center. There was also a nearby moored ocean buoy that at 0000 UTC reported sustained winds of 28 kt with a pressure of 1006.7 mb also just northeast of Victor. The latest advisory intensity is thus being maintained at 30 kt but the minimum pressure was lowered a bit due to this in-situ buoy data. The 30 kt intensity also agrees with most recent TAFB Dvorak CI estimate from 0000 UTC. Ultimately the combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the associated entrainment of dry air will prove victorious against Victor, with the depression forecast to gradually weaken during the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Victor becoming a remnant low by tomorrow evening, though 27 to 28 C sea surface temperatures could still support sheared convective bursts to the north of the low center into early next week. Victor's low-level wind field will also continue to spin down over the subsequent days, and the circulation is forecast to open up into a trough by Tuesday. The latest forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with the consensus aids and deterministic model output. The depression continues to move to the northwest at 310/12 kt though with the occasional tug poleward by the convection on its northern side. This northwestward motion is expected to continue as Victor remains embedded in the flow around a low-level subtropical anticyclone to its northeast. The NHC track forecast continues to be in general agreement with the track guidance consensus, maintaining Victor on a similar forward motion until the system opens up into a trough in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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