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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-05-11 10:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 The harsh surrounding upper wind environment has taken a toll on Andres. The last few fragments of the depression's deep convection dissipated around 1000 PM MDT (0400 UTC) with the exposed center of Andres now traversing slightly cooler oceanic temperatures. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt based on a 0343 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The strong shear and decreasing SSTs are likely to cause Andres to become a remnant low later this morning and degenerate into a surface trough late Wednesday night. The depression is moving westward, or 270/6 kt while embedded in the low-level tradewind flow. Vertically shallow Andres and its remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, and is close to the TVCE eastern Pacific consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.9N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-05-11 10:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-11 10:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue May 11 the center of Andres was located near 15.9, -111.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Andres Public Advisory Number 9
2021-05-11 10:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 ...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 111.0W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Andres is expected to become a remnant low later this morning and dissipate late Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-05-11 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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