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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-18 09:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 180835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Thursday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-18 09:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2020-11-18 03:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 02:48:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 03:31:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-18 03:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showed curved bands developing over the western portion of the cyclone, although deep convection remains rather limited near the depression's surface center. Subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers haven't changed during the past 6 hours and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity aids along with the LGEM model indicate that the depression will strengthen to a low-end tropical storm during the next 12-24 hrs and the NHC forecast continues to show this trend. Afterward, modest west-southwesterly shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low in 2 days. The deterministic guidance agrees that the depression will open up into a trough of low pressure in 4 days, or less. This is also reflected in the official intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt in the mid-tropospheric steering current provided by high pressure anchored to the north of the cyclone. The depression is expected to continue in this general motion through Thursday. Through the remaining forecast period, the depression is forecast to turn westward in the low-level easterly flow as a shallow, or vertically limited cyclone. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-18 03:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Nov 17 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 15.5, -114.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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