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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Graphics
2020-11-18 09:38:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 08:38:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 09:31:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Iota Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-11-18 09:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180837 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 88.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-18 09:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180836 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 The curved band feature that was prominent in earlier satellite images has dissipated, likely due to very dry air surrounding the cyclone. The depression now consists of a small central dense overcast (CDO) that has just recently become established in the past few hours. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds were occurring to the west of the center of the depression, near the curved band that existed at that time, while winds of 20-25 kt were occurring around the center. The nearest sampling by a scatterometer tonight was by the ASCAT-A, which did pass over some of the same area that had the strongest winds earlier, with peak winds now only 20 kt. Assuming the reorganizing of the convection near the center has helped to increased the winds somewhat there, the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt. If the current CDO feature persists this morning, then the depression will likely strengthen to a tropical storm later today. By early Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to begin weakening, and by Thursday night the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in agreement with the various multimodel consensus aids. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt. The depression is moving to the south of a mid-level ridge, and the cyclone is expected to continue in this general motion through tonight. A turn to the west within the low-level easterly trade wind flow is expected on Thursday as the system loses its deep convection and becomes shallow. The track forecast was nudged a little to the left of the previous advisory track due to a shift in the model guidance in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-18 09:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-18 09:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON THURSDAY... As of 1:00 AM PST Wed Nov 18 the center of Twenty-one-E was located near 15.7, -115.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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