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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-13 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 37.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics
2020-09-13 17:02:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:02:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:32:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-09-13 17:02:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 131502 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Sporadic small areas of convection continue to fire off around the circulation of Rene, only to dissipate shortly thereafter. A recent ASCAT overpass showed an area of 20 to 25 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 25 kt. The dry environment surrounding Rene will only get drier over the next couple of days. That, along with increasing subsidence over the cyclone should eventually cause Rene to become a remnant low. There is no change to the previous forecast intensity or timing of the system becoming a remnant low, which is consistent with the global models. Rene is beginning to slow down as a ridge starts to build to the north and northwest of the cyclone. This slowing trend should continue through tonight. Late Monday through Tuesday, a turn to the west then southwest should occur as whatever remains of the system becomes steered by the larger circulation of Tropical Depression Twenty to its southwest. There is little change to the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC forecast lies near the various multi-model track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 26.8N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 27.6N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 27.3N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0000Z 26.1N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-09-13 17:02:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 131502 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-13 17:01:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED RENE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Rene was located near 26.8, -47.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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