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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 130236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 130236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 45(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 22(24) 35(59) 3(62) X(62) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-12 23:03:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122103 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being set at 30 kt. The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCN multimodel consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.4N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-12 22:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 20:43:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 21:46:39 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-12 22:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Twenty was located near 11.4, -33.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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