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Tropical Depression Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-09-17 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 281 FONT14 KNHC 170233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 11 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WHITING FLD FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-17 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 86.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.7N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 86.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 22:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-16 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the previous and is supported by global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Summary for Tropical Depression Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-16 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL SOON BECOME A REMNANT LOW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Karina was located near 23.0, -124.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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