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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 458 FONT15 KNHC 030844 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 266 WTNT25 KNHC 030844 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-03 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 02:36:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 03:24:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-03 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030233 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 A brief and small burst of convection developed near the center of Omar early this evening, only to be quickly sheared well to the southeast of the exposed low-level center. Any new convection that developed during the day has been smaller in coverage and shorter lived, and this trend is expected to continue. The initial intensity is being held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass showing several peak 30-kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Ongoing wind shear of 40-50 kt should not allow any developing convection to persist near Omar's center, and the depression should degenerate to a remnant low sometime on Thursday. This scenario is in agreement with the global model forecasts. A few days from now, the remnant low should dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a larger approaching mid-latitude frontal system. Omar continues to move east at around 13 kt, to the north of a subtropical ridge. An east or just south-of-east motion is forecast through Friday. After that time, the remnants of Omar should turn east-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and is also near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 36.1N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-03 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 030233 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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