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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-01 04:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010238 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 75.7W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 75.7W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.2N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.1N 71.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 68.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.9N 65.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N 63.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.1N 60.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.7N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 41.6N 50.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 75.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2020-08-31 22:46:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2020 20:46:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2020 21:25:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-31 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 312044 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure offshore of the Carolinas has had convection organized in bands since before dawn, and scatterometer plus an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission data confirm that the circulation is closed. Thus, this is now a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with 25-30 kt ASCAT-A data plus buoy 42001 readings which earlier had an adjusted 10-m peak of 30 kt. The depression is moving northeastward at about 10 kt. The system should gradually turn toward the east-northeast by Wednesday due to it moving around the northwest side of the subtropical ridge, then move eastward in a few days around the flat ridge. By late week, the cyclone could slow and eventually turn back toward the northeast around a rather strong mid-latitude high pressure system over the northeast Atlantic. There is considerable spread in the guidance, which really seems to depend upon whether the system stays coherent, like the official forecast, or would become a shallow low-level swirl by 120h and end up slower and south of forecast track. This forecast is near the corrected-consensus guidance, leaning toward the ECMWF-based models, and it should be considered of low confidence. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next day or so while the depression remains in a low-to-moderate shear environment. Although the depression is expected to be traversing the warm Gulf Stream for the next several days, wind shear is expected to greatly increase by Wednesday, which should limit intensification. In fact there's some chance the system could decay and lose any deep convection in rather strong shear in a few days. However, since it likely will be moving near the Gulf Stream, I suspect it will continue to pulse thunderstorm activity and stay alive throughout the period. The NHC intensity forecast is near or just above the model consensus on that reasoning, closest to the HWRF model. The cyclone could become extratropical (or a remnant low) by the end of the forecast, but this is very uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 32.6N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 34.9N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 35.8N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 36.7N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 37.6N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 41.5N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-31 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 312044 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152020)
2020-08-31 22:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA BUT EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM LAND... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 the center of Fifteen was located near 32.6, -76.5 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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