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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-04 16:43:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 14:43:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 15:24:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-04 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did, Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a lack of organized convection. ASCAT-B showed a few believable 25-30 kt vectors and is the basis for the intensity analysis. Omar's status has no meaningful bearing on the forecast. An approaching deep-layer trough from the west should cause the weak cyclone to turn northeastward or north-northeastward later today and accelerate in that direction through the weekend. A lack of deep convection and the increase in forward speed will likely cause Omar to dissipate by early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.2N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 35.8N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1200Z 37.1N 56.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 39.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-09-04 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 041441 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-04 16:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of Omar was located near 35.2, -57.8 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 16
2020-09-04 16:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 ...OMAR COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 57.8W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 57.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northeast to north-northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and should continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Omar could become a remnant low at any time today and is expected to dissipate over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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