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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-01 16:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 The depression has become better organized this morning with the center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep convection. An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression is a tropical storm. Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30 kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon. Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening, although it does seem more likely than not that this system will barely make it to a tropical storm later today. The shear is forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours. While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm threshold. The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12 kt. There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction. Dissipation is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as days 2-3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 34.7N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-01 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 011440 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-01 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 the center of Fifteen was located near 34.7, -73.1 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-01 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011440 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 73.1W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 73.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) This general motion is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move away from the North Carolina coast today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Gradual weakening is anticipated by late Wednesday. The system is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression will continue to affect portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina through this evening, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-01 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 73.1W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 73.1W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 73.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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