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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 47.9W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 130838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 130838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 129.1W ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 129.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general westward motion is expected to begin later today and then continue for the next few days along with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 129.1W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 129.1W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 128.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 364 WTNT21 KNHC 130838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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