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Tropical Depression Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-08-28 22:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 282033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-08-28 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 282033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 72.7W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 72.7W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 72.9W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.8N 71.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.7N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 45.3N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 50.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Erin Graphics
2019-08-28 16:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 14:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 14:37:20 GMT
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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-08-28 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 281436 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Erin has become less organized this morning with the center exposed and becoming more removed from the remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of these support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear that has been affecting Erin is forecast to decrease somewhat later today and tonight, but given the current structure of the system, little overall change in intensity is anticipated during that time. If convection does not re-develop closer to the center later today, Erin could become post-tropical. An alternate scenario is for the circulation to become elongated and lose definition as a mid- latitude trough approaches from the west. The global models suggest that the trough is likely to help Erin or its remnants deepen somewhat as an extratropical low on Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows little change in strength today, then indicates that Erin or its remnants will become an extratropical gale by 36 hours. Erin is now moving north-northwestward at 11 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on Erin turning northward and then northeastward by Thursday ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Erin or its remnants are forecast to accelerate and reach Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward, and the updated official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 33.6N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 35.5N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 39.0N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 43.8N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1200Z 48.9N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Erin (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-28 16:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 33.6, -72.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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