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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-07-26 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 899 WTPZ23 KNHC 262044 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.4W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.4W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2018-07-08 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 02:36:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 02:36:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-07-08 04:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 The depression is gradually becoming better organized. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the center is located on the northern side of a convective burst and to the east of a broken curved band. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. This estimate also uses data from NOAA buoy 41002 located about 60 n mi south-southeast of the center. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system overnight, and it should provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has now stalled, as forecast. The cyclone is caught in very weak steering currents between two mid-level ridges and a mid- to upper-level trough to its north. A very slow southeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as ridging builds to the north of the system. Thereafter, a sharp northeastward turn with an abrupt increase in forward speed is predicted when a deep-layer trough approaches the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous one in the short term based on the latest guidance. The depression is presently over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current and it will remain over these warm SSTs during the next few days. In addition, light to moderate wind shear and perhaps some baroclinic forcing from the approaching trough should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur in a little more than 4 days when the system is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current and move over very cold waters. Although the depression is expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina coastline, the tight pressure gradient between the depression and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. is expected to produce gale-force winds over Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. See products issued by the National Weather Service forecast offices for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.9N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 32.8N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 32.6N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 32.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 34.5N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 41.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 49.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-08 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE... ...HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 the center of Three was located near 32.9, -75.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 6
2018-07-08 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE... ...HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 75.1W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. The depression is stationary and a very slow southeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or Sunday with additional strengthening expected after that. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states into early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Winds to gale force not directly associated with the depression are expected along the North Carolina coast and over Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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