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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-07-27 22:30:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 021 WTPZ23 KNHC 272030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.9W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.9W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2018-07-27 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Jul 2018 08:32:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Jul 2018 09:34:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-27 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 658 WTPZ44 KNHC 270832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The depression is not well organized at this time, with the center likely located between two unimpressive areas of convection. Microwave data also suggest that the circulation is elongated northeast-to-southwest, which is another sign that the cyclone is struggling. Dvorak classifications haven't changed, so the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Little change in strength is forecast due to moderate northwesterly shear, with weakening likely in a couple of days due to persistent moderate or strong shear. The new intensity forecast is lower than the previous prediction beyond 36 hours, and the cyclone is now forecast to become post tropical by 96 hours. Given the shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it remains possible that this forecast is conservative, and that dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast. Satellite and microwave data indicate the depression has slowed down, now moving westward at about 10 kt. This general track is forecast for the next several days, with the system gaining some latitude in the Central Pacific basin due to the orientation of the subtropical ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF models are farther north than the rest of the guidance, possibly due to slight binary interaction with Tropical Storm Gilma. Overall, the new forecast is not too different than the previous one, although it has been adjusted to the northeast at long range to account for the models mentioned above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 10.7N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 10.6N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 10.5N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 10.7N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 11.0N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 11.9N 150.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 13.0N 155.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-07-27 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 929 FOPZ14 KNHC 270831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092018 0900 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 3 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092018)
2018-07-27 10:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 the center of Nine-E was located near 10.7, -137.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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