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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-05-11 10:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110842 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 0900 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-05-11 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110842 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 West-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the depression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the main cluster of deep convection during the past few hours. Despite the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. Since the shear is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more difficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection near its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. The remnant low should then dissipate in about 3 days. The depression has been moving due westward during the past few hours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. The cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its northwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down during the next couple of days. The updated NHC forecast track has been adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for the recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012018)
2018-05-11 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri May 11 the center of One-E was located near 12.6, -128.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 3
2018-05-11 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110842 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 128.6W ABOUT 1420 MI...2280 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 128.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strong upper-level winds are expected to cause weakening during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-05-11 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110841 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 0900 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 128.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 128.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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