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Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics
2017-10-28 19:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 17:52:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 15:25:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-28 19:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Eighteen was located near 21.8, -82.4 with movement NNE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 4A
2017-10-28 19:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281750 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 82.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located by weather radars from Cuba and Grand Cayman near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 82.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across west-central Cuba this afternoon and evening, across the Straits of Florida and near the Florida Keys overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight and in the central Bahamas by Sunday morning. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics
2017-10-28 17:07:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 15:07:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 15:07:37 GMT
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eighteen
Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-28 17:00:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281500 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation center. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection has developed and persisted in the inner-core region since yesterday. Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen. With the recent redevelopment of the inner-core region this morning, the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/19 kt. The global models remain in excellent agreement on an approaching frontal system and deep mid-tropospheric trough accelerating the cyclone north-northeastward across west-central Cuba today, followed by a motion toward the northeast tonight and Sunday, with the system passing about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United States in 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory due to the good agreement in the global and consensus models, which lie along or just a tad to the west of the official forecast track. The vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to remain somewhat favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours or so, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned frontal system are forecast to induce some additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation is expected by 72 hours when the system is located over the far North Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the forecast track of the center lies about 35 miles southeast of the Upper Florida Keys and extreme southeast Florida and most of the winds are expected to remain east of the center, only a slight deviation to the west of the expected track or an increase in the size of the wind field could bring tropical-storm- force winds across these land areas. For that reason, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 26.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 31.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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