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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2017-10-05 01:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 23:39:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 21:25:19 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-05 01:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Sixteen was located near 12.6, -82.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 2A
2017-10-05 01:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042338 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 82.6W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2017-10-04 22:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 20:55:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 20:55:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-10-04 22:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042051 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Visible satellite images show that the depression has lots of curved bands, although it is somewhat lacking any inner core features. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flew into the depression this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation, with maximum flight-level winds of 37 kt and SFMR values around 30 kt. These data support keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment, however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some guidance, such as the HWRF. The depression continues to move slowly northwestward, steered by a distant ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. However the steering pattern is forecast to change quickly tomorrow as a mid-tropospheric trough over the Florida Straits moves across the northwestern Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. While there is some agreement on the synoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in the short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the forecast track as soon as 24 hours out. This has profound differences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving considerably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement. A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night. 2. The system is expected to be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A hurricane watch could be issued for this area later this evening. 3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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