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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2021-08-16 10:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 08:52:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 09:35:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-16 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160850 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been moving southward and also remains a sheared tropical cyclone -- the ongoing saga of the Atlantic basin thus far this hurricane season. Convection has increased and developed closer to the center and a late-arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 26-27 kt to the south of the well-defined circulation center. Based on those data, the slightly improved convective structure noted in both satellite and radar data, and satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 195/04 kt. The small cyclone is starting to make the clockwise turn toward the south-southwest and eventually southwest that the global and regional models have been advertising the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance now shows less of a turn to the northwest after 72 hours, with the exception of the GFS, GFS-ensemble, and HMON models, which continue to take the cyclone northward and northeastward around Bermuda on day 4 and 5. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track through 60 hours, and then widens the track slightly thereafter, but still shows a complete clockwise turn. This track scenario is to the right of the consensus models at all forecast periods, and is of low confidence on days 4 and 5. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain at or below 10 kt for the next 36 hours or so, and that is most likely the time when the cyclone will strengthen. Thereafter, an increase in the shear to 20 kt or more is expected to cap the intensification process. The HWRF model turn the cyclone into a major hurricane by 72 hours, but this scenario is considered to be an extreme outlier given the amount of shear forecast to affect the system on days 3-5. So far this season, the HWRF model has been very shear resistant and has had a high intensity bias. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models through 60 hours, and then is below those models due to the high-bias contribution of the HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-16 10:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 160849 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 6 11(17) 12(29) 8(37) 6(43) 2(45) 2(47) BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-16 10:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.4, -62.9 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-16 10:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160849 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 62.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass to the southeast and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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