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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...FRED WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 85.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Fred is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight and merge with a frontal system on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Thursday Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Depression Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170840 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Fred has moved farther inland and is now located near the border of southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama. Between 0400-0600 UTC, Doppler radar data from Tallahassee, Florida, still showed 68-70 kt velocities between 9,000-10,000 ft associated with a solid band of convection in the northeastern quadrant. Using 50 percent of those values supported keeping Fred as a 35-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC. This intensity was also supported by 30-kt winds on the west side of the low-level circulation noted in surface observations. Since that time, however, the solid band of convection has become fragmented and the thunderstorm activity has broken up into more discrete cells. Satellite and radar imagery also indicate that the mid- and upper-level circulations have decoupled and sheared out to the north of the low-level circulation. As a result, Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Weakening will continue through today as Fred moves farther inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians, with Fred likely becoming a remnant low later tonight before merging with a frontal system over the northern Appalachians on Wednesday. Fred has continued to move north-northeastward, or 015/12 kt. For the remainder of today, Fred should maintain a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast accompanied by a gradual increase forward speed owing to a very stable steering pattern between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the west. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies near the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite. Although Fred is weakening, the system is still expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM ED, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 32.3N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 39.6N 80.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics
2021-08-17 04:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 02:45:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 03:29:20 GMT
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-17 04:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170244 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 IR and microwave imagery during the past few hours indicate that Grace's convective organization has improved a little since this afternoon. However, it is currently unknown if that has translated to a better-defined surface wind field. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z supported tropical storm strength, and it is possible Grace has redeveloped sustained winds of that magnitude. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Grace in a few hours, so it seems prudent to avoid making a big change before the plane gets there. Grace is therefore conservatively maintained as a 30 kt depression for this advisory. Regardless of Grace's exact intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across Hispaniola overnight, which will likely cause severe flooding in some locations. The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. Confidence in the track forecast has increased considerably during the past 24 h and the track model spread is low. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a generally westward or west-northwestward track through day 5. Once Grace moves away from Haiti, it should remain over water until it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Very little change was made to the official track forecast, which is based primarily on the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that Grace is forecast to avoid all major land masses for the next couple of days, all of the intensity guidance calls for some strengthening to occur. That said, with the exception of the COAMPS-TC model, the intensity guidance as a whole shows a slower rate of strengthening than it did 6 h ago. The NHC forecast is now very near the IVCN intensity consensus throughout the forecast, including over the Gulf of Mexico where it continues to show Grace reaching hurricane strength. Despite the slightly lower guidance for this forecast, it still can not be ruled out that Grace will reach hurricane strength over the western Caribbean. When the hurricane hunter aircraft reaches Grace in a couple hours and provides more information about the current organization of cyclone, we should have a better feel for how quickly it could intensify prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola overnight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.2N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.1N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.7N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 21.0N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0000Z 21.6N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/0000Z 22.2N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 22.5N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-17 04:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... ...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 18.2, -73.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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