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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-12 11:12:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 08:42:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 09:06:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-12 10:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120841 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 Edouard is feeling the effects of moderate vertical wind shear as the center is on the southwest edge of the deep convection. The current intensity values from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the cyclone remains a low-end tropical storm and its intensity is kept at 35 kt. While Edouard will be traversing progressively warmer waters during the next three to four days, it may only gradually intensify due to the inhibiting effects of about 15 kt of deep layer shear and dry lower-tropospheric air. Indeed, dropsondes launched by the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft this evening showed very dry conditions just to the southwest of Edouard. The official intensity forecast, based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and the HWRF dynamical model, is just slightly below the prediction from the previous advisory. Microwave passes by the TRMM and SSMI low-earth orbiting satellites assisted substantially in determining the initial position and current motion, indicating that Edouard was a bit farther west than estimated earlier. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at a faster rate of about 13 kt. Edouard should gradually turn toward to the north by the end of the forecast period, as it moves around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north and through a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCA multi-model consensus and is slightly west of the previous track prediction because of the more westerly initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 17.6N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.6N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 19.7N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 20.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 24.8N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 27.5N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-12 10:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 12 the center of EDOUARD was located near 17.6, -41.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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edouard
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-09-12 10:41:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 120841 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-09-12 10:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.7N 45.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.7N 47.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 49.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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