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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-09-13 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 131437 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 46.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 46.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.7N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 50.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.7N 52.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.1N 55.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 46.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-13 11:13:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2014 08:48:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2014 09:06:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-09-13 10:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130847 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 Edouard is gradually intensifying as a prominent curved band winds most of the way around the tropical storm. However, the convective cloud tops are warming and the central dense overcast is a bit skeletal. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased and all indicate maximum winds of around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity. Edouard is still being affected by 15-20 kt of vertical shear, primarily being induced the southwesterly flow around a very large tropical upper-tropospheric trough to its west. As Edouard moves poleward of the trough axis within the next day or so, the shear will diminish. As the waters the system will traverse are a quite warm 29C, only the somewhat dry atmosphere will not be conducive for a more rapid intensification. Edouard is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. After recurvature in three to four days, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which should allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 5. The NHC wind speed forecast is nearly the same as that in the previous advisory and is based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical model and the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models. A GCOM/AMSR2 microwave pass helped to locate the center of Edouard and also indicated that the system was tilted northward with height because of the vertical shear. Edouard is moving toward the west- northwest around 13 kt, under the influence of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. In about 3 to 4 days, the cyclone will respond to a break in the ridge by recurving and then accelerating toward the northeast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through the whole forecast period. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCA multi-model ensemble and is just to the east of the previous track prediction through 48 hours and just west thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 20.7N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 21.7N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 23.1N 49.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 24.7N 51.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.1N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 29.5N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 33.5N 56.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-13 10:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 13 the center of EDOUARD was located near 20.7, -46.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 8
2014-09-13 10:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 ...EDOUARD SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 46.2W ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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