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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-13 17:12:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2014 14:39:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2014 15:06:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-09-13 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131438 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 Although Edouard has lost most of the deep convection, it has a vigorous low-level circulation. Dvorak t-numbers still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. There are some arc clouds currently moving away from the main circulation suggesting that no important changes in intensity are expected during the next few hours. However, the shear is decreasing and this is already reflected in the current better defined upper-level outflow. The low shear, in combination with the pool of anomalous warm waters ahead of Edouard, should result in strengthening, and the cyclone should become a hurricane on Sunday or early Monday. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and is very close to the intensity consensus ICON. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11 kt. The steering environment has not changed, with the cyclone's motion being controlled by the subtropical ridge. This pattern will keep Edouard on the same general track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move east allowing Edouard to turn north, and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the cyclone northward over the Central Atlantic for the past several model cycles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 22.7N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 25.7N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 27.1N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 40.0N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-09-13 16:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 131437 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-13 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 13 the center of EDOUARD was located near 21.7, -46.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 9
2014-09-13 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 131437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 ...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 46.9W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.AT HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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