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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 14

2018-09-27 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 190 WTNT22 KNHC 270838 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 58.3W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 58.3W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.2N 60.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.9N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.6N 64.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.3N 71.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

2018-09-27 07:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KIRK APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 27 the center of Kirk was located near 13.3, -57.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 13A

2018-09-27 07:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 206 WTNT32 KNHC 270535 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 200 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...KIRK APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 57.7W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 57.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the tropical storm warning area by this evening. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. A ship to the north of the center recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds and high seas. The minimum central pressure based on the latest aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by this afternoon. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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