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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 19

2018-09-28 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 164 WTNT22 KNHC 281443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA...AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.2N 65.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.8N 67.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 63.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics

2018-09-28 13:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 11:53:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 09:21:57 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

2018-09-28 13:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KIRK MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Kirk was located near 13.5, -63.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 18A

2018-09-28 13:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 165 WTNT32 KNHC 281153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...KIRK MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 63.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe, and the Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados and Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines These watches and warnings will likely be gradually discontinued later today. Interest elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 63.0 West. Kirk is moving generally toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk or its remnants will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today or Saturday, and then degenerate into a trough of low pressure by late Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over the warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next several hours. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible over the remainder of the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands today. Locally higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches today and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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