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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-28 16:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 14:46:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 15:21:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-28 16:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 287 WTNT42 KNHC 281445 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Kirk has become less organized since the last advisory, with satellite imagery showing that the low-level center is now exposed well to the west-northwest of the remaining deep convection. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the winds have decreased to near 40 kt and that the central pressure has risen to near 1007 mb. The aircraft also reports that the circulation is losing definition in the southwestern quadrant. Kirk should continue to weaken due to the effects of 30 kt of westerly vertical shear, and the NHC forecast continues to call for dissipation just after 24 h. As noted in the previous discussion, there is a chance dissipation could occur earlier than currently forecast. The center has jogged back to the west-northwest during the past few hours, which results in an uncertain initial motion of 285/11. Kirk should move generally west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge until dissipation. Even though Kirk is weakening and moving away from the Lesser Antilles, the associated gusty winds and rains should continue affecting the islands today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 14.2N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.8N 67.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-09-28 16:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 416 FONT12 KNHC 281444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT AVES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-28 16:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Kirk was located near 13.8, -63.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 19
2018-09-28 16:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...KIRK WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 63.6W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia, and the Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 63.6 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk or its remnants will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next day or two. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and then degenerate into a trough of low pressure on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible over the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands today. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches today and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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