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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-02 22:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 022035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.9W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.9W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 85.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-09-02 19:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021741 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS NANA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 85.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning may be issued for Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 85.1 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras later today, and the center should make landfall on the coast of Belize tonight or early Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Belize tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico by tonight, with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras, including Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands, later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Northern coast of Honduras: 1 to 3 inches. Belize, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches. The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4 inches. The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-02 16:48:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021448 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Although is seems as though we've been predicting it ad nauseam, the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using the shear scene-type. Omar's winds should begin to decrease later tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast, I'll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue on this general course through Friday. On Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 36.2N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Omar Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-02 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...BLISTERING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT OMAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 67.4W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 67.4 West. Omar is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening should begin Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-02 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 021446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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