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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-02 16:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021446 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 67.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 67.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 67.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-02 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Ongoing northerly shear has caused the satellite appearance of Nana to degrade a little since the last advisory, with the low-level center located near the northern edge of an asymmetric convective burst. Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds remain near 50 kt and the central pressure is near 998 mb. The initial motion is westward or 270/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands in about 12 h, then make landfall over Belize in 18-24 h. After that, a generally westward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates over southeastern Mexico. The latest indications from the large-scale models are that light northerly shear should persist over Nana until landfall. However, the guidance is in good agreement that strengthening should occur before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows this trend, however, it is a little above the upper end of the intensity guidance. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, it is expected that Nana will reach hurricane intensity about the time it makes landfall in Belize. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken until it dissipates by the 60 h forecast time. Observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that Nana remains a rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 n mi or less from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nana is expected to bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0000Z 16.6N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-02 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021445 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NANA CONTINUING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 84.6W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Guatemala. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning may be issued for Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 84.6 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras today, and the center should make landfall on the coast of Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Belize tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico by tonight, with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras, including Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands, today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Northern coast of Honduras: 1 to 3 inches. Belize, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches. The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4 inches. The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-02 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 021445 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 10 74(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BELIZE CITY 50 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BELIZE CITY 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 53 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GUANAJA 50 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GUANAJA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-02 16:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 83.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.6N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 93.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 84.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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