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Tropical Storm Omar Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-02 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...OMAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 70.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 70.0 West. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the east is forecast to occur Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected through Wednesday. A weakening trend should begin Wednesday night, and Omar is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-02 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020234 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 70.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 70.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 70.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.0N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 60.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.9N 58.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.4N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 40.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-02 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 020234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-09-02 01:56:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 012356 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...NANA MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 80.1W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 80.1 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana could become a hurricane just prior to landfall early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in Belize, and 2 to 4 inches across northern Honduras and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-01 22:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012055 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Although convection has waned somewhat since the previous advisory due to mid-level dry air entrainment, Nana still has enough deep convection over and surrounding the low-level center to keep the intensity at 45 kt. Upper-level outflow has continued to improve, with the associated anticyclone becoming more symmetrical. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening. The initial motion estimate is 275/16 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. A pronounced deep-layer to the north of Nana is forecast to remain intact and even build westward over the next few days, keeping Nana moving in a general westward direction for the next 36 hours or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is expected to build west-southwestward across southern Mexico, driving the cyclone west-southwestward as well across northern Central America. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected- consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. The current northeasterly 15 kt of vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions should inhibit development for next 24 hours or so. However, the GFS and ECMWF models both forecast the shear to gradually decrease during the next 48 hours, becoming near 5 kt by 36 hours. The lower vertical shear, coupled with the already impressive outflow pattern, sea-surface temperatures of 29.5-30.5 deg C, and a moistening mid-level environment should allow for gradual strengthening for the next 24 hours, followed by more significant intensification thereafter, which will continue right up until landfall occurs. The NHC official intensity forecast is a blend of the simple consensus intensity model IVCN, and the corrected-consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. A Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.8N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.3N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.2N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0600Z 16.5N 91.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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