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Tropical Depression Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150234 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 94.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nicholas Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 94.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 94.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east is expected tonight through Wednesday night, followed by a northward drift on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more hours along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These conditions should diminish later tonight and Wednesday morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible tonight through early morning from southeast Louisiana to southwest Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-09-15 01:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142338 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 94.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located by Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. Nicholas is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn is expected over Louisiana on Wednesday. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday or by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Depression Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible this evening along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These conditions should diminish tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through tonight across southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-14 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142056 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that the intensity of Nicholas has remained steady over the past several hours despite having moved a little farther inland over the upper Texas coastal plain. Both satellite and radar data also indicate that the overall circulation has tightened up somewhat, although a large swath of stable low clouds have advected into most of the southern semicircle of Nicholas' circulation. The highest sustained wind speeds of 34-36 kt have occurred in a narrow band of fragmented, shallow convection between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana, during the past couple of hours. Doppler radar velocity data from Lake Charles has also indicated wind speeds of 40-45 at 3,000 ft altitude just offshore the southwestern coast of Louisiana. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. The estimated central pressure of 1003 mb is based on nearby surface observations, especially the reports from the Eagle Point, Texas, C-MAN station, which indicate that the center of Nicholas passed over or near that station between 1800-1900 UTC. As Nicholas moves farther inland, gradual weakening is forecast due to land interaction, entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, and strong westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. Nicholas is forecast to become a tropical depression later this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday or early Thursday. The initial motion estimate is east-northeastward or 070 degrees at 5 kt. Nicholas is forecast by most of the global and regional models continue its east-east-northeastward motion through tonight, followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday. Nicholas could still stall over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses on Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the consensus track models TCVA and NOAA-HCCA. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will gradually subside, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will gradually diminish into tonight. 3. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area long portions of the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts will gradually subside by this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 29.6N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 29.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 30.0N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 30.1N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-14 22:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 94.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Nicholas is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to become a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday or by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts this afternoon, and gradually diminish by this evening. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this afternoon and gradually subside this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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