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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Public Advisory Number 39
2021-08-19 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 23A
2021-08-19 07:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190544 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE APPROACHING THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 86.4W ABOUT 60 MI...115 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Cuban radars near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 86.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west- northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during the next six hours, move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). Another Weatherflow station located at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later this morning, and tropical storm conditions have already begun to spread onshore. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland across the Yucatan Peninsula during the day today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later this morning, and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190300 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 10(39) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 39(49) 12(61) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 9(44) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 7(43) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 5(27) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 2(19) X(19) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190300 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 ...HENRI MAINTAINING INTENSITY WITH 70 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 68.5W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A sharp turn to the north is expected on Friday with a general northward motion continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190300 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 68.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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