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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-19 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri earlier this afternoon and found maximum flight-level winds and SFMR values to support an intensity of about 55 kt and a minimum pressure of 997 mb. The storm's appearance in satellite images has been generally steady throughout the day with the low-level center located on the northern side of the convective mass, and banding features confined to the south side of the circulation. This somewhat asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The tropical storm is now moving due westward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge should keep Henri on a westward to west-northwestward track through tonight. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. The exact location of the northward turn will be very critical in determining Henri's future track and how close it gets to New England. The latest GFS run has shifted eastward and the UKMET and ECMWF have shifted westward. Consequently, the net result is very little change in the consensus models and the new NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one. Based on this forecast, Henri is expected to be very near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will be flying around Henri this evening to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm. Although Henri is a bit weaker now, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed. The shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength seems likely during that time period. However, the global models show a more conducive upper-level wind pattern over Henri shortly after that, and in fact, all of the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, steady intensification is expected during the 24-60 h time period, and Henri is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. Henri is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move over much cooler SSTs on Sunday, and that should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a steady weakening trend from days 3 to 5. Post-tropical transition is now shown to occur by the end of the forecast period when Henri is expected to be over SSTs below 20 deg C. It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area early Friday. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 29.7N 71.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 38.9N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 40.8N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 42.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 43.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-19 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 192039 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 14(22) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) 14(40) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 11(33) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 6(30) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 4(31) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 17(33) 4(37) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) 2(37) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 18(39) 3(42) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 17(38) 2(40) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) 2(35) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 18(44) 3(47) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 15(54) 2(56) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) 1(23) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 61(63) 10(73) 2(75) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 8(39) 1(40) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 15(61) 2(63) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) 1(27) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 1(29) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31) 1(32) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 14(33) 1(34) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) 1(40) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 1(22) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 1(22) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 12(58) 1(59) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) 1(23) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) X(27) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 10(35) X(35) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 2(21) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) X(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 16
2021-08-19 22:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 71.4W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 71.4 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-19 22:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192038 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.9N 70.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 70.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 42.3N 69.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.6N 65.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 71.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 39
2021-08-19 22:33:51| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021
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