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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-20 04:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200255 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) 9(37) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 6(16) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) 7(32) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) 4(34) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 12(38) 2(40) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 13(48) 2(50) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 15(52) 1(53) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 14(56) 1(57) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) 1(22) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 15(58) 1(59) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 13(50) 1(51) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 12(62) 1(63) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) X(28) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 56(60) 9(69) X(69) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) 1(36) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 63(78) 4(82) X(82) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 5(51) X(51) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 61(69) 8(77) X(77) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 7(40) 1(41) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 10(42) X(42) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) X(46) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 12(49) 1(50) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 11(56) X(56) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 11(33) X(33) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 6(74) X(74) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 10(40) X(40) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 8(45) X(45) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 9(30) X(30) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) X(28) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 1(20) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) X(25) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 3(22) 1(23) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 3(21) X(21) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-20 04:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200255 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI HOLDING ON AGAINST SHEAR AND MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 72.3W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 72.3 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest and north is anticipated on Friday, followed by an acceleration to the north and north-northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near or over southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada on Friday and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-20 04:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 938 WTNT23 KNHC 200253 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Public Advisory Number 42
2021-08-20 04:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 26A
2021-08-20 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 91.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 91.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move away from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Intensification is likely now that the center has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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