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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henris appearance this evening is one of a tropical cyclone that is battling vertical wind shear. The satellite structure has evolved into a large convective plume with overshooting cold -70 to -75 C cloud top temperatures near the center of the convective mass. Underneath the cirrus, Henris structure has remained steady-state, with a SSMIS pass at 2243Z showing a ragged mid-level eye on the 91 GHz channel that remains displaced a bit southeast of the low-level signature on 37 GHz. The latest satellite intensity estimates have a large spread in values ranging from 55-kt up to 80-kt. I have elected to maintain Henris intensity at 60 kt for this advisory, but there is a larger than normal uncertainty in this estimate. The initial motion continues to be just south of due west at 265/8 kt. The short-term track guidance is in general agreement that Henri will continue a general westward motion for the next day or so, as the cyclone is caught to the south of a pronounced mid- to upper-level ridge. However, the models disagree on how far westward Henri is able to advance in the short-term, and these track differences appear to be related to Henri's intensity and vertical depth of the circulation. This track dependency is nicely illustrated by the most recent ECMWF ensemble guidance, where stronger members move further south and west in the short-term, ending up on the left-side of the ensemble mean, while weaker members move slower and more poleward. The deterministic guidance is similar, with the weaker ECMWF and Canadian runs off to the east/right while the stronger GFS and UKMET runs are further left/west. These short-term track differences appear pivotal, because the ridge over Henri is then expected to quickly erode as a mid-latitude trough digs in over the Ohio Valley and becomes negatively tilted over the Mid-Atlantic. The leftward track guidance has Henri interacting with this trough leading to a track forecast much closer to the northeastern US, while the rightward track guidance is not captured by this feature, and stay further offshore escaping out to sea. In general, the mean of the track guidance is very similar, or just a shade to the right of the previous cycle. I have elected to maintain a very similar track to the previous advisory, splitting the difference between the previous forecast just left, and the reliable HCCA consensus aid just right. As mentioned previously, a NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the synoptic environment of Henri tomorrow and will hopefully provide more data ingested into the model guidance to reduce the large track spread seen in the current cycle. Henri is now under moderate northerly shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 knots over the next 24 hours. While this would ordinarily weaken the tropical cyclone, the system also remains under very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures that are somewhat above normal for this time of year. Due to these offsetting factors, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains Henri at 60-kt for the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the shear is forecast to decrease as the storm turns more poleward directly under the upper-level ridge axis. This favorable synoptic pattern should allow Henri to intensify and gradual intensification is shown up to a 80-kt peak in 72-h. The NHC intensity forecast is more or less in the mean of the large guidance spread, though it should be noted that the regional hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) have somewhat stronger peak intensities later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. The forecast track of Henri remains near the northeast coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 29.8N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-08-19 04:55:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190255 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Grace has become a bit better organized during the past several hours. Cuban radar data indicates that the eye and eyewall have become better defined, and reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the inner core circulation has become better defined. There are also occasional attempts at eye formation in satellite imagery. However, these changes have not yet resulted in significant intensification, with the maximum winds remaining near 70 kt and the central pressure hovering near 988 mb. One possible restraint on development is a dry slot that is seen wrapping around the central core in both satellite imagery and Cuban radar data. The center has jogged a little to the left during the past few hours, and the initial motion is now 280/16. The hurricane should continue to move generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 24-36 h, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion from 36-48 h. This motion should bring the center over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next 12 h, followed by passage across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Campeche to a second landfall in mainland Mexico between 48-60 h. After that, the cyclone should continue moving into the mountains of Mexico until it dissipates. The new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Except for the aforementioned dry slot, conditions appear favorable for intensification before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula. While not explicitly show in the intensity forecast, Grace could reach an intensity of 75-80 kt before it reaches Yucatan. The cyclone should weaken some as it crosses the peninsula, then re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico until it reaches mainland Mexico. After final landfall in Mexico, Grace is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico just after 72 h. The remnants of Grace are likely to emerge in the Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty of whether this will be the original center or a new center precludes forecast points over the Pacific at this time. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for portions of mainland Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for part of this area. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 19.8N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 20.3N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/1200Z 20.7N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0000Z 19.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2021-08-19 04:55:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 125 FONT12 KNHC 190255 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) X(25) X(25) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 19(54) X(54) X(54) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 27(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 19 77(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MERIDA MX 50 1 56(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MERIDA MX 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) COZUMEL MX 64 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BELIZE CITY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 23
2021-08-19 04:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190254 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...GRACE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THAT AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 85.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm Watch from the coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general west- northwestward to westward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during the next six to twelve hours, move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland the Yucatan Peninsula during the day Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-08-19 04:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190254 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 85.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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