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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 19A
2021-08-18 07:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180544 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 80.1W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CAYMAN BRAC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Dzilam * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * North and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of Dzilam to Campeche A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and satellites near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 80.1 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move away from the western coast of Jamaica and and move near or over the Cayman Islands later this morning. Grace will approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico tonight or early Thursday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly north through east of the center. A reporting station near Rum Point Beach on the north shore of Grand Cayman recently measured a sustained wind of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of western Jamaica for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area and over the Cayman Islands through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and across Jamaica, mudslides will also be possible. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-18 05:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180331 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Corrected speed of motion in the second paragraph. Henri's appearance on satellite imagery has remained more or less steady-state, featuring a small CDO with additional convective banding along the eastern side of the circulation. However, the earlier mid-level eye feature that was trying to develop on radar from Bermuda has recently become more ill-defined, possibly due to some dry-air being entrained into the inner-core of the storm. The latest Dvorak subjective estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, respectively. In addition, a 2336 UTC ASCAT-A pass had lower peak wind retrievals than what was found earlier today, but this instrument may not be quite able to sample the relatively small tropical cyclone core observed on radar. For now, the initial intensity will be held at 55 kt, though this estimate could be a bit generous given the recent scatterometer data. Henri has begun a more pronounced motion to the west-southwest, and the latest initial motion is estimated at 255/07 kt. An amplified mid- to upper-tropospheric ridge located northwest of Henri is expected to keep the storm on a west-southwestward or westward heading in the short term. However this ridge will begin to gradually erode as an mid- to upper-level trough propagates eastward to the Eastern United States. This should allow Henri to start gaining latitude by 48 hours, turning toward the northwest, north, and then northeast as the mid-level ridging redevelops southeast of the cyclone. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance, with the stronger regional hurricane models on the left side, while the weaker global models remain more on the right side of the guidance envelope. In general though, there was another westward shift in the guidance suite, so the latest NHC forecast track was adjusted again in that direction, and is in closest agreement to the HCCA guidance aid. The intensity forecast in the short-term is tricky. Last night and this morning, Henri's deep convection was been able to propagate into its up-shear quadrant, in spite of light to moderate northwesterly shear importing fairly dry mid-latitude air from the north. Consequently, the storm has been able to intensify and become more axis-symmetrical. Over the past few hours, however, the convection to the northwest of the center has eroded once again on Bermuda radar, likely due to dry air entrainment by the aforementioned vertical wind shear. On the other hand, the tropical cyclone is currently over sea-surface temperatures above 29 C, which will likely allow for significant boundary layer recovery of dry mid-level air that is able to get into the inner core. Thus, even as northerly vertical wind shear increases over the next 24 hours, Henri is expected to maintain its intensity. After 60 hours, this northerly shear is expected to subside, and Henri will have an opportunity to intensify towards the end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one for the first 60 hours, but is a little stronger in the latter time periods, blending the reliable HCCA guidance with the more aggressive regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 30.0N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-18 04:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180257 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH 65-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 65.1W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn to the west with a faster forward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by an additional turn to the west-northwest and northwest by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by little change in strength through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island. SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-18 04:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 180257 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-18 04:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180256 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 65.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 65.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 65.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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