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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-17 16:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 171435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Henri remains a sheared tropical storm. Geostationary satellite images and microwave data show a relatively large area of deep convection (~200 miles across), but the center of the storm is located near the western edge of the thunderstorms due to ongoing northwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest Dvorak estimates have been steady at 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The center of Henri is located roughly 130 miles south-southeast of Bermuda currently, and this will likely be as close as the storm gets to the island. The tropical storm is gradually turning to the west, as expected, and the initial motion is estimated to be 255/5 kt. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster pace during the next two or three days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the 72-120 h period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short term and farther west than the previous one from days 3-5, trending toward the latest consensus models. The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is expected to subside later today, and that should allow the storm to gain strength during the next 12-24 hours. However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri during the 24-96 hour period. Although this shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear. Therefore, no change in strength is predicted beyond the 24 h period. Some of the models suggest that the shear could lessen again this weekend, so although not explicitly forecast, some strengthening is possible then. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-17 16:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 171435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 4(11) 3(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-17 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 894 WTNT33 KNHC 171434 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 64.3W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda through tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island. SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Please consult products from the Bermuda Weather Service for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-17 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 527 WTNT23 KNHC 171434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.3W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.3W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 64.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-08-17 16:34:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021
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