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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-08-14 04:45:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 2A

2021-08-14 01:55:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132355 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 Corrected to include Anguilla in the changes with this advisory section ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 53.1W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and Sint Eustatius. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.1 West. The depression is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 17A

2021-08-14 01:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 132342 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 80.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 80.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-13 22:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132052 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 Over the past few hours, the system moved just to the north of a buoy owned by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. The buoy's winds backed from northwest to west to south, indicating that the system has a closed surface circulation. In addition, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T2.0, and the system is therefore being designated as a tropical depression on this advisory. Maximum winds remain 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the Dvorak estimates. The circulation has closed off despite the depression moving quickly westward (275 degrees) at about 19 kt. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48-60 hours, with the depression being driven quickly westward across the Leeward Islands and toward the Greater Antilles by ridging to the north. After 60 hours, there is considerably more spread, with the regional dynamical models keeping the system farther south over the Caribbean Sea, and most of the other models indicating a turn toward the west-northwest, following a track similar to Tropical Depression Fred. The NHC track forecast generally favors the latter scenario and is very close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. During the next 2 days, the depression is expected to move beneath an upper-level ridge axis, which should allow the deep-layer shear to fall below 10 kt, with the system also moving over warmer waters and through an environment of increased moisture. However, the depression's fast motion, as well as the possible development of some mid-level westerly shear, could stunt the rate of strengthening. Due to these conflicting factors, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side and is not quite as high as the solutions shown by the SHIPS and HCCA models. The HWRF model is quite aggressive, bringing the depression to hurricane strength by day 3, but that model is an extreme outlier compared to the other guidance. After 48 hours, the current forecast takes the center of the depression over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, a scenario that would cause weakening and suppress the system's intensity. As is typically the case, the system could get stronger than shown in the official forecast if it ends up moving over less land, or dissipate entirely if it moves over land for too long. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. The risk of strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.4N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.7N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 18.4N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.0N 70.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA 96H 17/1800Z 20.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 18/1800Z 23.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 2

2021-08-13 22:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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