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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-21 22:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212050 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Like clockwork compared to prior days, deep convection has reignited closer to the increasingly elongated low-level circulation of Peter. Despite this increase in convective coverage, there does not appear to be much if any organization to this activity, with the upper-level cirrus taking on the appearance of a shapeless blob. In addition, an earlier 1157 UTC ASCAT-A pass received just after the prior advisory showed a peak wind retrieval of only 29 kt, well to the north of the low-level circulation. Furthermore, NOAA buoy 41043, located north of the center of Peter, has been observing peak 1-minute sustained winds between 20-25 kt over the last 6 hours. These lower winds, in combination with the lack of tropical storm force winds observed by the earlier Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission provide enough justification to downgrade Peter to a tropical depression this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The ongoing afternoon convection appears to have slowed down the forward motion of Peter a bit this afternoon, but the heading remains off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt. Peter is still expected to gradually move to the west-northwest in the short term, followed by a somewhat sharp turn to the north and north-northeast as a weakness in the low-level flow develops from a deep-layer trough positioned near Bermuda. Similar to this morning, the guidance is in general agreement on this solution, with some cross- and along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is just a bit more right compared to the previous advisory, leaning a bit closer to the consensus aids which have also shifted a bit right this advisory. Peter's convective activity is unlikely to help improve the increasingly elongated vortex, mainly because the convection is likely to entrain dry mid-level air that often results in cool downdrafts disrupting the low-level cyclonic circulation more than helping. With deep-layer shear between 25-35 kt expected to persist for the next 36 hours in both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance, gradual weakening is likely to continue. By 36 hours, while intermittent bursts of deep convection will remain possible over warm sea-surface temperatures, both the GFS and ECMWF forecast simulated IR brightness temperatures show the convection becoming increasingly disorganized and unlikely to sustain Peter's status as a tropical cyclone. Thus, the cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 hours. However, given that Peter's circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, it is also possible the system may open up into a trough even before this time period. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Depression Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through the evening across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 20.5N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.3N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 22.3N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.2N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 24.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z 25.3N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 26.7N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 28.7N 63.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-21 22:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 212046 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...PETER NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 65.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will remain well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and should move well east of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days, and Peter could degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Depression Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including portions of the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to Hispaniola this evening and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-09-21 22:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 212046 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-21 22:43:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 212043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 66.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.2N 66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.3N 66.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.7N 63.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-21 22:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 212036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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