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Remnants of Peter Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-09-23 04:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230237 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Although a low-level swirl can still be seen in infrared satellite imagery, this feature has continued to lose definition. A recently arriving partial ASCAT-A overpass shows that the circulation has become more elongated, and Peter lacks a well-defined center. In addition, the system has not produced any organized deep convection in quite some time. The cloudiness and convective activity that has been occuring over the western Atlantic has been located along a trough axis well northeast of the decaying circulation center. As a result, Peter no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with the ASCAT data. The remnants of Peter are expected to remain within an area of strong upper-level westerly winds, and further weakening should occur over the next day or two. The system has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 335/4 kt. A weakness in the low-level ridge should allow the remnants to turn northward tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through the end of the week. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 22.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Peter Public Advisory Number 18
2021-09-23 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 230235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 67.0W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Peter were located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Peter will affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-22 23:01:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222100 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Corrected to include a location reference point for the system. ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.. ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 33.9W ABOUT 2030 MI...3265 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 33.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next several days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow, and could be near hurricane intensity by the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-09-22 22:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222058 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter continues to just barely maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone. While the low-level circulation has remained intact today, the convection continues to be located well downshear to the east. However, there have been a few convective elements forming a bit closer to the center recently and that is the primarily justification for maintaining advisories on Peter as a tropical cyclone this afternoon. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt given the earlier scatterometer data, though this might be generous. Continued strong southwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry mid-level environment should ultimately strip the remaining convection away from Peter, with the tropical cyclone expected to finally peter out as a post-tropical remnant low in the next 12 hours. The depression has been moving very slowly recently, with an estimated north-northwestward motion of 340/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and then north-northeastward following a weakness in the low-level ridge until the system finally opens up into a trough, sometime in the 48 to 60 hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.7N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 22.5N 66.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 23.5N 66.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 24.4N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 25.6N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-09-22 22:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 222056 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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