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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-22 22:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222037 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds, with the only significant convection occurring about 120 n mi southeast of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and are now 25 kt from TAFB and too weak to classify from SAB. Based mainly on earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt. Rose remain in an area of northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. The large-scale model guidance indicates that the hostile conditions will continue for at least another 36 h, and based on model forecasts of convection Rose is now expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 h or less. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models suggest the possibility that convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h period due to the remnant low interacting with an upper-level trough. For now, the intensity forecast will not call for re-generation at that time. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. A northwestward motion is expected for the next 12-24 hours as Rose or its remnants are steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. After that time, the system is expected to turn northward, northeastward, and eventually east-northeastward as it becomes steered by a deep-layer trough that includes the remnants of Odette. Since Rose has moved a bit to the west of the previous forecast, the guidance and the new forecast track have also shifted westward during the first 36 h. The new NHC track is to the east of the consensus models for the first 36 h, and close to the consensus aids after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 24.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-09-22 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 39.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 40.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-22 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221453 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter is barely hanging on to its status as a tropical cyclone this morning. While still closed, the low-level circulation continues to look increasingly diffuse on satellite imagery. In addition, the convective activity, which lacks much organization, remains displaced well to the northeast by moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates support keeping Peter as a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory. As has been the story for the last few days, Peter will continue to deal with a lethal combo of 25-35 kt southwesterly vertical wind shear while embedded in a relatively dry mid-level air environment. These factors should ultimately lead to Peter's demise as a tropical cyclone, with the latest NHC intensity forecast moving the timing up for post-tropical remnant low status to 24 hours. This degeneration could occur as soon as this afternoon if more organized convection does not soon return near the center. Alternatively, Peter may also open up into a trough at any time since the center continues to gradually lose definition. Similar to prior nights, Peter made another jog to the left after overnight convection diminished near the center. More recently, the depression has begun a slow north-northwestward motion estimated at 330/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and then northeastward over the next 24 hours as low-level ridging breaks down south of a deep-layer trough located near Bermuda. The NHC track forecast early on is a bit west of the previous one due to the leftward initial position, but falls in line to a similar track after 24 hours, continuing to split the difference between the GFS and ECMWF models. As Peter moves poleward away from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Virgin Islands, the threat of heavy rainfall for these regions associated with the system has diminished. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 21.6N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.3N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 24.2N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 25.1N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 26.3N 65.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Rose Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-22 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...ROSE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 39.2W ABOUT 1115 MI...1800 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 39.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, however, Rose is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night or Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-22 16:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221442 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...PETER BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 66.9W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 66.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas later today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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