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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 69
2018-10-13 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 131432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 69 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 ...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 12.6W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 12.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 33 mph (54 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a decrease in forward speed. On this track, the center of Leslie will be near the southwestern portion of the Iberian peninsula later today, and move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone during the next several hours. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian peninsula, and then dissipate by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to portions of Portugal later today or tonight, and gale-force winds to portions of western Spain later today through early Sunday. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more information on this hazard. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 5 inches (125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend, and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco today and continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 69
2018-10-13 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 131432 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 69 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 12.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 69
2018-10-13 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 131432 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 69 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 12.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 540SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 12.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 14.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.0N 8.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 50SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.5N 4.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 12.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-13 13:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Oct 2018 11:41:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Oct 2018 09:21:57 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-13 13:39:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE HEADING FOR THE IBERIAN PENINSULA IN A HURRY... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Oct 13 the center of Leslie was located near 37.3, -14.5 with movement ENE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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