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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 68A
2018-10-13 13:39:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 131138 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 68A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 800 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 ...LESLIE HEADING FOR THE IBERIAN PENINSULA IN A HURRY... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 14.5W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Portugal has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 14.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h). A motion toward the east-northeast with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula today, and move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone later today. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula later today or early Sunday, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to portions of Portugal later today or tonight, and gale-force winds to portions of western Spain later today through early Sunday. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more information on this hazard. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 5 inches (125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend, and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco today and continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-13 10:47:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Oct 2018 08:47:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Oct 2018 09:21:57 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 68
2018-10-13 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 130838 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 Satellite imagery suggests that Leslie has started extratropical transition. The mid-level eye seen earlier in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery has become less distinct, and it is continuing to separate from the low-level center. In addition, colder air is entraining into the western and southern sides of the circulation. However, a sizable cluster of convection persists to the northeast of the center, indicating that the cyclone is still tropical at this time. The large-scale models forecast that Leslie will likely complete transition in 12 to perhaps 18 h, and that the associated winds should remain at or near hurricane force until the center moves over the Iberian Peninsula. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should dissipate as it becomes part of a broad low pressure area over Spain between 36-48 h. The initial motion is 070/33 as Leslie is now well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A continued east-northeastward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the next 36 h. This should bring the center of Leslie onshore on the Iberian Peninsula in about 18 h and into western Spain by about 24 h. There is little change in either the track guidance or the track forecast from the last advisory. The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain will handle hazard information for their respective countries via local weather products. Key Messages: 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of western Spain tonight and Sunday. 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches) across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash flooding. 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 36.2N 16.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 37.7N 11.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 14/0600Z 39.6N 6.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 41.3N 2.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 68
2018-10-13 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 130838 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 68 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 16.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-13 10:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE IBERIAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 13 the center of Leslie was located near 36.2, -16.7 with movement ENE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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